“It is dangerous to make predictions – especially about the future.”
– Danish physicist Niels Bohr

After the Berlin Wall came down in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, global experts announced it was ‘the end of history’. Humanity had, they said, reached “not just the passing of a particular period of post-war history, but the end of history as such: that is, the end-point of mankind’s ideological evolution and the adoption of Western liberal democracy as the final form of human government”. They wrote books, went on world speaking tours and people like me paid hundreds of dollars to hear them tell us where the world was headed.

They could not have been more wrong if they tried. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine being Exhibit A. China’s threat to Taiwan Exhibit B.

In a previous post I quoted James Surowiecki’s book, ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’, in which the author describes how ordinary people are collectively smarter than so-called experts when it comes to problem-solving, decision-making, innovating, and predicting. The reason why, he explains, is that individual experts are inherently biased. They are part of a club. He says the knowledge and common-sense of ordinary people, however, eliminates bias and produces a clearer and more coherent result.

There’s an old Greek proverb, “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows only one thing.”

As we know, the world isn’t made up of just one thing, it is made up of a whole range of competing factors and trade-offs that are different for different people of different ages living in different places and with different priorities.

Like the ‘crystallised intelligence’ vs ’fluid intelligence’ paradigm. Crystallised intelligence employs experience and wisdom and knows how the world works. Fluid intelligence knows how to study and pass exams. Foxes vs hedgehogs. We’ve all met them.

Being knowledgeable on one subject narrows one’s focus and increases confidence, but it also dismisses dissenting views. This can lead to self-deception. As we’ve seen in Europe, the world is a messy and complex place – and dangerous to predict. There are countless variables and factors. Foxes understand this innately, hedgehogs not so much.

The bottom line is, we have to stop letting hedgehogs run things. Advisers, yes. Leaders, no. They may be fine leading other hedgehogs in a particular field, but the world is not a hospital or a laboratory or a courtroom or a classroom or a police station. We don’t want the country run by epidemiologists and police commissioners.

Next month marks the 110^th anniversary of the sinking of the Titanic. A number of people at the time made statements before the ship set off on its doomed voyage – all of them fatally wrong. Among them was the ship’s captain, Edward J. Smith, who said, “I cannot conceive of any disaster happening to this vessel. Modern shipbuilding has gone way beyond that.” Not to be outdone was Phillip Franklin, vice-president of the White Star Line, the ship’s owner. Prior to the voyage, Franklin said, “This boat is unsinkable.”

After the tragedy, a devastated Franklin regretted his remarks. “I thought she was unsinkable. I based that opinion on the best expert advice.”

The internet has given the world access to the latest information on every subject under the sun. Instantly. Some of it is accurate, some of it is not.

The lesson is, by all means listen to what experts have to say, but then make up your own mind. We can’t let experts dictate what the rest of us can and cannot do – for the simple reason that they are hedgehogs. They are only good at one thing. (Strange, too, that when they take off their hedgehog uniforms and go home, they act more like foxes and don’t always practice what they preached when they were wearing their hedgehog uniforms …. just saying).

Global experts are having to re-think the ‘end of history’ given recent events in Europe and Asia.

National experts are having to re-think responses to climate change – “Even the rain that falls isn’t going to fill our dams and river systems”. Tell that to the people of Queensland and NSW! Billions of dollars have been wasted building desalination plants, and millions more wasted maintaining them.

Our State experts told us we needed to build a road which has all the traffic going one way in the morning and then all the other way in the afternoon.  Needless to say, that didn’t last very long and great expense was incurred re-building the road so that traffic could go both ways all day long.

Bert Kelly made the logical point, “If these experts were as clever as they make out, they wouldn’t be here, they’d be sitting in the South of France with their feet in a bucket of champagne”.

This election, send the hedgehogs a message.

Tell them you’re exhausted from being told what to do all the time – ‘must do this; can’t do that’.

Vote ‘J’ for James (as in James Surowiecki from The Wisdom of Crowds) and get the respect you deserve.

 

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Authorized by Bob Day Australian Family Party 17 Beulah Road, Norwood SA 5067

J is for …

In Hebrew it is the “hameat hamachazik et hamerube” – ‘the little that holds a lot’.

It is referring to the 10^th letter of the Hebrew alphabet: ‘yud’, the most important of all the letters. The name of God starts with a yud – YHWH – Jehovah in English. It is also the smallest letter in the alphabet – the size of a small comma – and yet every letter in Hebrew contains a yud, because the moment the pen touches the paper, there it is.

In English, yud is the equivalent of our letter ‘J’, which is also the 10^th letter of our alphabet. The number 10 is very profound in Scripture. From the first chapter of Genesis in which God creates 10 things – light, sky, land, sea, plants, sun, moon, stars, living creatures and finally humans – to the 10 plagues of Egypt; to the commandment to give a tenth of one’s income (the tithe); to Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the year – the 10^th day of the 10^th month; to Abraham’s 10 tests; and, of course, the 10 Commandments.

At this election, every voter is asked to cast two ballots – one on a small green ballot paper for the House of Assembly (the Lower House) and the other on a very large white ballot paper for the Legislative Council (the Upper House).

The House of Assembly ballot paper is quite straightforward – simply number the candidates (usually around five or six of them) in your order of preference.

The Legislative Council ballot paper however, is not so straightforward.

For a start, it is nearly a metre long and contains 19 registered political parties or groups above the red line and over 50 individual candidates below the red line.

Voters can choose whether to vote above the line or below the line, but not both. Voters can also choose whether to number any amount of boxes above the line – from just one box to all 19 of them. If voting below the line, a voter must number a minimum of 12 boxes.

The Australian Family Party has drawn box J on the white ballot paper. Box No 10. How’s that for divine providence! J for Jehovah, J for Jerusalem, J for Joshua, J for Joseph, J for Joanna, J for Judges and, of course, J for Jesus.

We are recommending voters vote above line and follow our how-to-vote card by placing a 1 in the box marked J, then a 2 in the box marked M for One Nation, and then a 3 in the box marked A for the Liberal Democrats. Both One Nation, led in South Australia by the phenomenal Jennifer Game and the Liberal Democrats’ highly respected leader Kenelm Tonkin have conducted themselves impeccably throughout this election period. Their pro-life, pro-family, pro-freedom stance has been exemplary, and I cannot speak highly enough of both of them.

Click here to view seat by seat how-to-vote cards.

All we need now are a few more V for volunteers to hand out the how-to-vote cards and we’re done.

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Authorized by Bob Day Australian Family Party 17 Beulah Road, Norwood SA 5067

The story is told of a forest that was continually shrinking – but the trees kept voting for the axe. The axe, you see, was very clever; it was able to convince the trees that because its handle was made of wood, it was one of them.

In a recent major analysis of voting trends, the Australian newspaper reported, “Support for minor parties and independents has reached its highest level in four years.”

The corollary of that of course is ‘support for major parties is at its lowest level in four years!’

Australia has economic and social problems that it wants to solve – employment uncertainty, high mortgages (which force both parents out to work), high cost of educating and raising children, high power prices, high water prices, social ills caused by the rupturing of family relationships, addiction to alcohol, gambling, drugs and pornography, and suicide. Our politicians however, do not appear to be able to solve these. Watching Question Time should give us some clue as to why not.

As William F. Buckley once said, “We’d be better governed by the first 100 people in the phone book than by the stereotype politicians we are asked to vote for today.”

Hence the rise of minor parties and independents.

In his excellent book, ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’, author James Surowiecki describes how large groups of ordinary people are collectively smarter than so-called experts when it comes to problem-solving, decision-making, innovating, and predicting. The reason why, he explains, is that individual ‘experts’ are inherently biased. They are part of a club, whereas the knowledge and common-sense of the ‘crowd’ eliminates the bias and produces a clearer and more coherent result.

Take one example. The Australia Council gives taxpayer-funded grants to the arts. Dr Bella d’Abrera, Director of the Foundations of Western Civilisation Program at the Institute of Public Affairs, has brought to our attention a couple of these grants. One was an $80,000 grant to a cabaret singer whose performance involved writing abuse about Prime Minister Scott Morrison on her naked bottom. The other $80,000 grant was to a ‘poet’ who argues that ‘bowel movements are perhaps innately connected to the art of creative writing’. If this is what passes for art, then we’re in trouble. The real problem however, is that our hard-earned money is being used to pay for it. As John Roskam from the Institute says, “Don’t force me to pay for this sort of thing when there’s real suffering and real pain being experienced by business owners who are losing their businesses, their marriages, and their families because they have been shut down. There are a million better ways for the government to spend $160,000 – like for example mental health services for children who have been locked up for two years. That’s how I feel and that’s how a lot of Australians feel”.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Which is where the Australian Family Party’s authentic, local candidates come to the fore. Our candidates understand their local communities – their crowd. They are part of the wisdom of their crowds. Which makes them far better representatives than the major-party nominees who go along with all that Australia Council nonsense as they work their way up the party ladder.

At this forthcoming State election, our candidates need to replace these major-party apparatchiks. But they need your support – by word-of-mouth, by volunteering on election day to give out their how-vote-cards and of course, financial support to pay for the how-to-vote cards. If you would like to help them, please make a donation here.

We have a great team of candidates, let’s get behind them. Otherwise, there’ll be nothing left of the forest we call Australia.